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{"id":2328658,"block_id":"tjroot_1390491406","theme_id":1,"user_id":907083,"path":"simply-wrong-6762","title":"Behind the Numbers...","pubtitle":"Simply Wrong","tags":"","public":true,"publicAccess":true,"thumb":"https://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/infogram-thumbs-200/tjroot_1390491406.jpg","embedImageUrl":"https://infogram.io/p/3147fd14248af018e4168ceae59e3efa.png","width":600,"copyright":"Copyright 2014 GoFor3   gfor3.com    offtackleempire.com","properties":{"publishType":0,"transparent":false,"rtl":false,"export_settings":{"showGrid":true,"showValues":true},"whitelabel":false,"title_link":"infogram","custom_logo":"none","embed_button":"enabled","pro":true},"elements":[{"type":"particle","particle_id":3741759,"object_id":"tjroot_1390620370","particle_type":"maintitle","picture":null,"text":"Simply Wrong: YPG Rankings","content_type":"","title":"","shrink":null},{"type":"particle","particle_id":3741779,"object_id":"tjroot_1390621374","particle_type":"bodytext","picture":null,"text":"The first stat you'll always hear about a defense is yards-per-game. Rushing yards. Passing yards. Yards, yards, yards. Is that an accurate way to measure a defense? No. Let's see why.","content_type":"","title":"","shrink":null},{"type":"particle","particle_id":3741305,"object_id":"tjroot_1390607393","particle_type":"quote","picture":null,"text":"\"There is always a well-known solution to every human problem — neat, plausible, and wrong.\"","content_type":"","title":"H.L. Mencken","shrink":null},{"type":"particle","particle_id":3737999,"object_id":"tjroot_1390581021","particle_type":"bodytext","picture":null,"text":"Interpreting this chart: Each team's distance from the 45-degree 1:1 diagonal indicates the disparity between the simple yards per game ranking and advanced F/+ defense ranking. The greater the distance, the larger the disparity. ","content_type":"","title":"","shrink":null},{"type":"chart","chart_id":4320865,"object_id":"tjroot_1390491406","chart_type":"Scatter","chart_type_nr":20,"data":[[["Team","Defense Rank YPG","Defense Rank F/+","PPG","Team"],["FSU","3","1","10.7","FSU"],["Auburn","92","18","24","Auburn"],["Alabama","5","7","11.3","Alabama"],["Michigan St.","1","2","12.7","Michigan St."],["Stanford","14","18","18.6","Stanford"],["Baylor","17","25","21.2","Baylor"],["Ohio State","30","45","21.3","Ohio State"],["Missouri","72","11","22.5","Missouri"],["S.Carolina","18","16","20","S.Carolina"],["Oregon","26","22","21.6","Oregon"]]],"custom":{"xlabel":"Defense Ranking YPG","ylabel":"Defense Ranking F/+","xmin":"0","xmax":"95","ymin":"0","ymax":"95"},"colors":["#36000b","#ff3c00","#780505","#0b630b","#a30e00","#023d04","#ff0000","#e39700","#000000","#afd41a","#60284f","#53cae8","#ffe670","#da6f6e","#4c7b86","#ffca68","#ba5c53","#498ca4","#ffa760","#844a4f","#5aacc9","#ff9088","#6f4a64","#8cd7ea"],"dimensions":[],"modifier":0},{"type":"particle","particle_id":3725760,"object_id":"tjroot_1390491406","particle_type":"bodytext","picture":null,"text":"This chart plots the ranking of each of the top 10 teams in the end-of-season BCS standings  using two metrics. The first is the simple and wildly popular yards-per-yame metric. This stat is religiously spouted by ESPN talking heads. It's easy to understand and quickly tallied by even the most elementary statistician. It's also a terrible measure of a defense. The second metric is F/+ rating, which is a combination of the Fremeau Efficiency Index (the \"F\") and the S&P+ system (the \"+\") to create a ranking which considers each of the 20,000 possessions from a season and analyzes success rates, explosive plays, drive efficiency, and opponent strength. Compared to simple stats like yards-per-game, it's a steakhouse vs. Steak 'n' Shake. The F/+ uses math to adjust raw numbers for reality and to paint an accurate picture of a team's strength that isn't clouded by weak opponents, garbage time scores, or lucky breaks. It's deep, thorough, and highly advanced. No wonder ESPN doesn't use it.","content_type":"","title":null,"shrink":null},{"type":"particle","particle_id":17220655,"object_id":"337635f1-eadd-11e4-a037-7b5f270fdca9","particle_type":"maintitle","picture":null,"text":"Behind the Numbers...","content_type":"","title":null,"shrink":null},{"type":"chart","chart_id":4333053,"object_id":"tjroot_1390580677","chart_type":"Textual","chart_type_nr":23,"data":[[["Auburn: 92nd or 18th?","Auburn's defense was ranked 92nd in the country based on YPG. Does anyone on earth believe that Auburn pitched a one-loss season in the SEC West and came within seconds of the BCS title with the 92nd-best defensive unit in the FBS? Auburn's F/+ defensive ranking was 18th. That sounds a bit more like it.","",""],["Ohio State: 30th? Try 45th.","Ohio State's YPG ranking was 30th compared to a 45th F/+ ranking for the Buckeye defense. I'd say the latter seems a bit more in line with reality. While 15 spots might not seem huge, consider the fact that the YPG stat overrated the OSU defense by a factor of 33%.",""],["Sparty was overrated...","...but not by much. All season long, the MSU defense was lauded as the &quot;best in the country&quot; based on the YPG numbers. In reality, they were actually the third-best unit in the country. That's a trivial point, really. Dantonio's defenders still finished in a medal position.",""],["5-on-5 ","Note that 5 of the teams fell above the 1:1 diagonal and 5 fell below. Sounds as though the YPG ranking overrates and underrates evenly enough, until you note how much farther the teams below the split fell from the line. That equates to a system which skews toward underrating some defenses. But which ones? Read on.",""]]],"custom":{},"colors":["#ff5100","#e60e0e","#147a00","#f2b036","#b02c20","#307d99","#f28a35","#852b33","#41a3c6","#ea594e","#60284f","#53cae8","#ffe670","#da6f6e","#4c7b86","#ffca68","#ba5c53","#498ca4","#ffa760","#844a4f","#5aacc9","#ff9088","#6f4a64","#8cd7ea"],"dimensions":[],"modifier":0},{"type":"particle","particle_id":3741320,"object_id":"tjroot_1390607734","particle_type":"bodytitle","picture":null,"text":"The Bigger Picture...","content_type":"","title":"","shrink":null},{"type":"chart","chart_id":4333621,"object_id":"tjroot_1390583767","chart_type":"Bubble","chart_type_nr":16,"data":[[["Team","Defense Rank YPG","Defense Rank F/+","Strength of Schedule Average","Team"],["FSU","3","1","53.7","FSU"],["Auburn","92","18","7.7","Auburn"],["Alabama","5","7","27.3","Alabama"],["Michigan St.","1","2","40.7","Michigan St."],["Stanford","14","18","2.7","Stanford"],["Baylor","17","25","39.7","Baylor"],["Ohio State","30","45","56.7","Ohio State"],["Missouri","72","11","18.0","Missouri"],["S.Carolina","18","16","19.7","S.Carolina"],["Oregon","26","22","22.3","Oregon"],["Oklahoma","13","24","18.3","Oklahoma"],["Clemson","23","13","41.3","Clemson"],["Oklahoma State","48","6","27.0","Oklahoma State"],["Arizona State","32","26","1.7","Arizona State"],["UCF","19","38","69.0","UCF"],["LSU","20","36","21.3","LSU"],["UCLA","56","23","5.0","UCLA"],["Louisville","2","10","97.7","Louisville"],["Wisconsin","6","9","40.7","Wisconsin"],["Fresno State","94","70","99.7","Fresno State"],["Texas A&M","109","86","19.3","Texas A&M"],["Georgia","50","46","11.3","Georgia"],["Northern Illinois","93","74","104.0","Northern Illinois"],["Duke","75","62","54.7","Duke"],["USC","16","5","21.0","USC"]]],"custom":{"xlabel":"Defense Ranking YPG","ylabel":"Defense Ranking F/+","xmin":"","xmax":"","ymin":"","ymax":"","height":"451"},"colors":["#ff0000","#1100ff","#0000ff","#ff0000","#0900ff","#ff0000","#ff0000","#0000ff","#0000ff","#0000ff","#0000ff","#ff0000","#000dff","#0000ff","#ff0000","#0900ff","#0900ff","#ff0000","#ff0000","#ff0000","#0000ff","#0000ff","#ff0000","#ff0000"],"dimensions":[],"modifier":1},{"type":"particle","particle_id":3741359,"object_id":"tjroot_1390608663","particle_type":"bodytext","picture":null,"text":"If the sampling is expanded to the entire BCS top 25, a clearer trend begins to emerge. For this chart, each team was plotted as before, but with the bubble chart factor of schedule strength, which was calculated by taking the Sagarin SOS, the Massey SOS, and the FEI SOS and averaging the three for each team. Each team's strength of schedule is represented by the team's bubble size. The larger the schedule, the weaker the schedule. Each bubble was then color-coded based on whether it was stronger (blue) or weaker (red) than the mean schedule strength for the BCS Top 25. The result shows that teams which play stronger schedules are far more likely to be significantly underrated by the YPG stat. That sounds so simple it's almost obvious. Playing better opponents means yielding more yards. If it's so obvious, though, why do we forget about it and insist upon trying to rank defenses by YPG?","content_type":"","title":"","shrink":null},{"type":"particle","particle_id":3741390,"object_id":"tjroot_1390609347","particle_type":"bodytitle","picture":null,"text":"Oh, and one more thing...","content_type":"","title":"","shrink":null},{"type":"chart","chart_id":4324661,"object_id":"tjroot_1390510876","chart_type":"VerticalStackBar","chart_type_nr":10,"data":[[["Defensive Yards","FSU","Michigan St.","Stanford","Alabama","Missouri","S. Carolina","Auburn","Oregon","Baylor","Ohio State"],[],["Rushing","1515","1051","1186","1300","1974","1707","2134","1972","1635","1334"],["Passing","1976","2176","3221","1996","3316","2433","3371","2603","2493","3374"]]],"custom":{},"colors":["#fff","#20a824","#6a1bd1","#f2b036","#b02c20","#307d99","#f28a35","#852b33","#41a3c6","#ea594e","#60284f","#53cae8","#ffe670","#da6f6e","#4c7b86","#ffca68","#ba5c53","#498ca4","#ffa760","#844a4f","#5aacc9","#ff9088","#6f4a64","#8cd7ea"],"dimensions":[],"modifier":0},{"type":"particle","particle_id":3741382,"object_id":"tjroot_1390609187","particle_type":"bodytext","picture":null,"text":"Last but not least, the chart above shows the breakdown of the top 10 BCS finishers in terms of total yardage allowed, rank-ordered from left to right by FEI score. See a trend? No? Good. There isn't one. Unfiltered numbers are just noise. That ordering sure makes sense, though, given what we saw this season.","content_type":"","title":"","shrink":null},{"type":"particle","particle_id":3741373,"object_id":"tjroot_1390608961","particle_type":"quote","picture":null,"text":"Simple metrics don't tell us anything. So why do we hear them repeated time and again?","content_type":"","title":"Because it's easy.","shrink":null}],"theme":{"_id":1,"title":"Chart","author":"Infogr.am","usergroup":"","picture":"","order":1,"thumb":"/i/covers/n/preview-infogram.png","public":0,"width":550,"fonts":"PT+Sans:400,700;PT+Sans+Narrow","css":"/*igc-table:start*/\n\n/*igc-table:end*/\n\n/*igc-textual:start*/\n\n.igc-textual-figure {\n font-size: 45px;\n}\n\n/*igc-textual:end*/\n\n/*igc-sheets:start*/\n\n.igc-sheets .igc-sheet .igc-sheet-ico,\n.igc-sheets .igc-sheet:hover .igc-sheet-ico {\n border-color: #7d7d7d;\n}\n\n.igc-sheets .igc-sheet .igc-sheet-label,\n.igc-sheets .igc-sheet:hover .igc-sheet-label,\n.igc-sheets .igc-sheet.active .igc-sheet-label {\n color: #7d7d7d;\n}\n\n.igc-sheet .igc-sheet-ico,\n.igc-sheet.active .igc-sheet-ico {\n background: transparent;\n}\n\n.igc-sheets .igc-sheet.active .igc-sheet-ico::after,\n.igc-sheets .igc-sheet:hover .igc-sheet-ico::after {\n height: 14px;\n width: 14px;\n 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